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A Market View From Happy Hour – Don’t Blink

By Joe Benjamin
July 6, 8:13 PM
As we turn the corner into the second half of the year, it appears as though the market may be coming around to understanding the impacts that a strong jobs report will have on inflation. For months, Happy Hour has been pounding the table on higher rates and no cuts in 2023 because of how sticky core inflation is due in part to the strength of the job market.

BLK

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2 minute read

A Market View From Happy Hour – Optimistic Expectations

By Joe Benjamin
June 6, 6:37 PM
A big misconception about the FED's rate raising path is that just because we've achieved their terminal rate of 5.1% does not mean that they won't continue to raise rates later in order to beat inflation. The current expectation of the FED during the FOMC meeting next week is that rates will stay the same and that the FED is going to "pause" rate changes.

SPY

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2 minute read

A Market View From Happy Hour – Raise Those Stops

By Joe Benjamin
June 1, 6:54 PM
If you've been taking part in this wild AI rally, then you're likely doing very well and believe there's more upside to come, or you would hope. This market can continue to extend well into being overbought as it did in early February 2023 before reversing and making new 2023 lows in the process.

SPY