https://www.muddywatersresearch.com/research/bxmt/mw-is-short-bxmt/?__cf_chl_tk=qiYAE_rxy3vhEcz2MYHdt4NabnUZL8knwV2rm_V4lpA-1701883412-0-gaNycGzNDWU
Muddy Waters is short Blackstone Mortgage Trust (BXMT US). Interest rate swaps and manipulated risk ratings / loss provisions have obscured serious deterioration in BXMT’s loan book. Muddy Waters believes that starting in 2024, as an estimated $16 billion of swaps terminate, the following problems will be evident:
- BXMT will likely significantly cut its dividend as soon as H2 2024. At present SOFR, we expect BXMT to cut its quarterly dividend by at least half.
- We think large numbers of borrowers will be unable to refinance and repay BXMT.
- BXMT is at risk of a liquidity crisis.
- Even assuming rate cuts, BXMT’s losses on its $23.2 billion net book value of loans could reach ~$2.5 billion to ~$4.5 billion. BXMT’s market cap, which is currently $4.0 billion, is at risk of being completely wiped out by these losses. These losses would be in addition to BXMT’s existing loss provisions.
