This Bullish Google Analyst Does Not Expect Immediate Upside From AI Chatbot, Unlike Microsoft

Mizuho analyst James Lee reiterates a Buy rating on Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL) Google and a price target of $135.00. Mizuho’s recent agency checks…
  • Mizuho analyst James Lee reiterates a Buy rating on Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGLGoogle and a price target of $135.00.
  • Mizuho’s recent agency checks indicated that advertising remained challenging from elevated inflation and tighter consumer budgets.
  • Heading into the rest of FY23, he expects advertisers to optimize their ad spending, focusing on targeting existing customers that provide a higher LTV. Lifetime Value or LTV is an estimate of the average revenue that a customer will generate throughout their lifespan as a customer. 
  • However, consensus ad revenue growth of 3.4% YoY appears reasonable, the analyst says in a Friday note titled “Ad Revenue Checks Mixed, but Further Cost Reductions on the Horizon; Maintain Buy.
  • Mizuho’s recent industry call with a leading SEO firm indicated that Generative AI would have a limited impact on search market share given the limited commercial use cases and Google’s significant infrastructure advantage over its peers. 
  • Lee estimates Alphabet could reduce its cost base by $7.5 billion in FY24, or 2.2% of revenues, through the combination of renewable energy consolidation, employee reductions, and operating expense optimization, which could generate an upside of 8% to FY24 consensus operating income. 
  • He sees a limited downside to FY23 revenue growth and cost optimization efforts on the horizon and likes the setup into the quarter.
  • Price Action: GOOG shares traded lower by 0.27% at $105.61 on the last check Friday.
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