- Benchmark analyst Mike Hickey maintained a Sell rating for Roblox Corp (NYSE:RBLX) with a $21 price target.
- Hickey has reduced 3Q22 and FY22 financial estimates, as September KPIs confirmed a disappointing quarter ahead of its November 9 earnings results date.
- Hickey was astonished over RBLX’s decision to continue elevated investment spending that should exaggerate a significantly challenging operating environment and deteriorate free cash flow.
- The analyst is cautioned that the pandemic pulled forward growth, and normalized behavior may dampen outlier engagement trends.
- The current consumer spending pressure on mobile game experiences could extend to the Roblox platform.
- Most children do not personally pay for their game experiences on RBLX and are, therefore, more readily open to switching games.
- Because parents are not directly investing in the service, they are less emotionally connected and can easily throttle back spending during rising inflation.
- Hickey was cautious on ambitious growth initiatives, including advertising schemes focused on children that extend beyond core gameplay and could lead to increased regulations.
- He thought RBLX would continue to appeal primarily to young children, and most would age out when they become teenagers.
- He believed many kids would embellish on their age, which can skew the average, giving a false perception that the RBLX demo is aging up.
- He was not convinced that RBLX offers a safe play environment.
- He was cautious over expense growth that now appears reckless.
- He believed China’s growth was impaired.
- Price Action: RBLX shares traded higher by 2.17% at $42.33 on the last check Thursday.
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