International Paper An Attractive Entry Point With Solid Dividend Yield, Says Analyst Despite Guidance Cut

RBC Capital Markets analyst Matthew McKellar upgraded International Paper Co (NYSE:IP) rating to Outperform from Sector Perform at a lowered price target…
  • RBC Capital Markets analyst Matthew McKellar upgraded International Paper Co (NYSE:IP) rating to Outperform from Sector Perform at a lowered price target of $39.
  • The analyst is bullish on management’s commentary in Q1 results related to Industrial Packaging shipments destocking in the retail channel and expects volumes to improve in 2023, mainly in H2.
  • However, McKellar is cautious about containerboard capacity additions in 2023, with U.S. liner board and medium prices remaining flat for two months.
  • Despite a 14% reduction in 2023 adjusted EBITDA guidance by the company, the analyst believes the current share price represents a solid entry point given an attractive dividend yield. 
  • With the end of destocking, the analyst expects fluff pulp volumes (and share of mix) to recover from Q1 and sees favorable long-term trends for absorbent hygiene products.
  • The analyst projects fluff pulp prices to average $1,950/tonne in 2023 and $1,645/tonne in 2024, down from current pricing of $2,065/tonne and peak pricing of $2,230/tonne reached in mid-2022. 
  • Price Action: IP shares are trading flat at $33.01 on the last check Friday.
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