Harvard Professor Jason Furman believes the Federal Reserve is in danger of falling behind the curve again which may increase the cost of reining in inflation.
“The Fed doesn’t need to change course at its March meeting — it should stick with the reaction function it set out. Which, in light of recent data, would be consistent with raising rates by 50bp,” Furman tweeted.
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The Professor cited his opinion piece in The Wall Street Journal in which he argues that the central bank should shift from a 25-basis points hike to a 50-bps increase at its next meeting in March.
Furman pointed out in his tweets that just about every measure of inflation measured over the last three months has risen since the last FOMC meeting and coupled with that there has been strong economic data regarding consumption, jobs growth, hours growth, earnings growth, core orders growth, etc.
“If you revised up your view of underlying inflation by 0.25-50 pp plus revised up your views on the strength of the labor market and the economy’s resilience to rate hikes that would be consistent with raising the terminal rate to about 6 percent,” Furman tweeted.
Increasing Risks: The Professor pointed out that it will be tempting to use the statement, the dots, among other things to avoid what would look like an overly rapid lurch but said that would be a mistake. “The Fed has said it was data dependent, it is hard to imagine a bigger shift in data,” Furman said.
On Thursday, major Wall Street indices closed in the green on Thursday after Treasury yields dropped from earlier highs following comments from a Federal Reserve official. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) closed 0.78% higher on Thursday while the Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund ETF (NASDAQ:BND) lost 0.21%.
“A year ago it was obvious the Fed was behind the curve. The Fed caught up with the curve. It is in danger of falling behind again, something that risks greatly increasing the cost of bringing inflation down,” Furman said in his tweet.
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