Crisis Averted, Retail Sales, And Regional Manufacturing

Good Morning Everyone! Remember, tough markets don’t last but tough investors do.

Good Morning Everyone!

Remember, tough markets don’t last but tough investors do.


Prices as of 4 pm EST, 9/14/22; % YTD


MARKET UPDATE

Yield curve remains inverted

  • 10yr 3.4% – highest since 2011

  • 2yr 3.8% – highest since 2007

  • Fed typically ends tightening after inversions…

  • …different this time…

Retail Sales +0.3% MoM (vs. 0.0% expected)

  • Retail sales ex autos dropped (-0.3% vs +0.1% expected) for first time this year

Regional manufacturing – contraction

  • NY Empire State Manufacturing -1.5 (vs. -13 expected)

  • Philly Fed Manufacturing Index -9.9 (vs. 2.8 expected)

Import prices -1% (vs. -1.2% expected)

Export prices -1.6% (vs. -1.2% expected)

US 30-year mortgage interest rate tops 6% for first time since 2008

Railroad strike – crisis averted

  • White House reaches tentative agreement

  • Would have been massive disruption to economy

  • 27% of US freight moved by rail

  • Ports already bottlenecked:

  • And food shipments threatened:

Crude $87.5

  • China eases Covid restrictions in Chengdu (megacity, 21 million people)

    • BUT, growth projections have been declining

  • EIA small crude inventory build (2.4 million barrels)

Earnings None

CRYPTO UPDATE

Merge SUCCESSFUL: Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) switches to proof-of-stake

  • Initiated at 2:45 am EST, completed 13 min later

  • Nothing seems to have broken

  • Estimated to reduce blockchain’s power consumption by 99.95%

  • Move will drop new supply issuance of ETH by 90%

  • ETH mined per day down to 1,600 from 13,000

  • Miners replaced by validators

  • End-user experience unchanged

  • Focus will now be to grow scalability via rollups


MEME OF THE DAY

 

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