https://medium.com/@mingchikuo/long-tail-effect-and-edge-computing-are-key-to-ai-computing-power-growth-dell-and-asus-may-be-the-a1195ca78220
- There is a consensus that AI computing power will grow rapidly in the next ten years, but the market ignores the AI computing power structure will be similar to the long-tail effect, which means that in addition to the major CSPs that are the focus of the market, the total AI computing power built by second-tier CSPs/data centers, new cloud service providers and enterprise customers, which are overlooked by the market, should is also not to be underestimated.
- Enterprise demand for data privacy will be even more pronounced in the AI era, and the market has underestimated the growth of AI edge computing.
- Major PC/server brands play a key role in satisfying the long-tail effect of AI computing power and the demand for edge computing due to their sales channels and service resources.
- Major CSPs will eventually develop their own AI training and inference chips to compete with Nvidia, so the long-tail effect and edge computing are the key to Nvidia’s long-term growth.
- Nvidia also has the advantage of working with the major PC companies to meet the demand for long-tail effects and edge computing by asking them to help sell PC and NB graphics cards as it allocates more AI chips to the major PC companies. At a time when the AI chip supply is tight, and PC/NB graphics card inventory is high, this kind of close cooperation can create a win-win situation.
- Gigabyte benefits from AI’s long-tail effect and edge computing, with its highest stock price gain of about 260% this year. At the same time, Dell and ASUS are the undervalued beneficiaries, with their highest stock price gain of only about 50% this year.
- My latest survey indicates that Dell and Asus have been actively acquiring AI server orders recently, with orders of 45,000–50,000 units and 10,000 units (vs. Gigabyte’s orders of 10,000–15,000 units), respectively, and the orders are still growing. It is expected that Dell and Asus will be able to ship at least 30,000–35,000 units and 8,000–10,000 units, respectively, in the next year and a half after the component supply improves from August to September.
